Who Will Win the Oscar? My Predictions
Well, for the first time in my life, I am going to give my Oscar predictions in a public blog.
I am in the arts (more music and writing than film) but have no real expertise other than the fact that I have hardly ever missed an Academy Awards ceremony since I was a teenager. That’s over forty years of watching and, in my adult life, a lot of Oscar parties where I was frequently the winner of the pool! (NOTE: The only Oscars ceremony I did not see was in 2022 — The Slap! I was traveling. I will never miss one again.)
The good news is — should you want to try your own hand at guessing — you don’t actually need to see the movie. You just have to train yourself to think like the Academy does.
Here are some rules of thumb:
1. Look at what movies are picking up awards during the season for a clue. However, beware: The Golden Globes are not an accurate barometer. Most famously, Cher wasn’t even nominated for her excellent work in Mask. For her next role in Moonstruck, they gave her the prize. (Not that she didn’t deserve it for Moonstruck, but she did have stiff competition that year, namely Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction.) The other categories don’t fare much better. Look to the SAG Awards and various critics’ awards before you make your pick.
2. Who was snubbed the last time around? Often, the Academy wants to reward someone they failed to acknowledge for a superior performance (or several great performances) in their previous outing(s). Al Pacino was overlooked for so many of his great roles in the 1970s, but the Academy finally gave him the statue for the mediocre Scent of a Woman in 1992.
3. Who is actively campaigning for it in a good-natured way? The campaign begins after the nomination. Don’t make a play for a nomination beforehand (hello, Madonna!). The ones who know how to play the publicity game are frequently rewarded.
4. If you are big box office, that helps. The Academy thinks of itself as highbrow, but if they have a nominee who also had a big hit that year, or have a history of big box office, that nominee’s chances are better than the obscure choice. This rule works for directors as well as performers. Eventually, Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Will Smith, Julia Roberts, Sandra Bullock, and Jennifer Lawrence took home prizes — much deserved prizes for performers who also brought home the bacon.
5. In recent years, after much deserved criticism, the Academy has become more aware of their lack of minority representation in their pick of nominees. So far, that introspection has led to more nominations for people of color and LGBTQ folks but it hasn’t really materialized in a big way as far as wins (unlike the Emmys for television). But look for that to change in years ahead as more doors are opened in front of and behind the camera, and the Academy likes nothing more than to congratulate itself, even if it’s decades too late.
6. Was there a performance or film that was simply, undeniably great? Sometimes the Academy gets it right on merit alone. There was no denying Meryl Streep for her turn in Sophie’s Choice. She was up and coming, she spoke about five languages, she ran the gamut of emotions. She had to win.
With those tips, I’m going to make my picks, with the handicap of not knowing how the nominees will campaign or how the other awards are shaping up as we move toward the big night (March 10th).
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Both a critical success and a box office behemoth, I’ll go with Oppenheimer on this.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
As much as the Academy would probably love to give Scorsese a second Oscar, they can’t deny Christopher Nolan this time. He has previously been nominated for eight Oscars with no wins, and is arguably the film director of this century thus far. Nolan for the win.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Tough category. I’m going with Paul Giamatti. He is a beloved veteran of dozens of films and there is still a lingering feeling among some that he was robbed of a nomination for Sideways several years ago.
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
This has historically been a tough category. Poor Things has been getting a lot of buzz. Is the Academy ready to reward Emma Stone with her second Oscar at the tender age of 35? Will Annette Bening’s fifth nomination finally bring a win? How about upstart Gladstone, or Carey Mulligan, who really was the heart of the Maestro story?
I think the momentum for Poor Things and Stone herself will carry the day. Poor Annette will go the way of Glenn Close — multiple noms with no wins.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things).
A lot of prestige in this list! I’ll leave out Sterling K. Brown because he was in a little-seen movie. DeNiro’s nomination, though likely deserved, is more of a Valentine to one of the last great stars. The other three all have previous Oscar nominations and no wins! Who are they going to give it to? My money is on Robert Downey Jr. (P.S. — What happened to Chris Melton’s celebrated turn in May December?)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
A couple of puzzling things here. First, Danielle Brooks is the sole nomination for The Color Purple, a gorgeous film musical? Second, yes: America Ferrera’s monologue was the most talked-about moment in Barbie, and she was fine, but otherwise she didn’t have a lot of memorable screen time in the film. Good to see vets Emily Blunt and Jodie Foster on the list, but, in the end, I’m going with Da’Vine Joy Randolph for the win.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
I was a fan of May December, and the screenplay was a big part of its success. However, I need to leave my own feelings out of it. Here is a case where they will reward the much-loved The Holdovers, once again. A consolation prize for not getting Best Picture or Best Director.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction, Barbie, Poor Things, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
This is another nail-biter. The pattern is that the Best Picture usually also takes Screenplay. But I was also thinking this might be the place where Barbie gets rewarded. Amidst the candy-colored fun were the deeper messages that resonated with viewers. I’m going with Barbie on this one.
